Unraveling the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Who Bears the Blame?

Nov 7, 2025 by recoveryshake.com 32 views

Unraveling the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Who Bears the Blame?

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, a deeply entrenched and devastating geopolitical crisis, continuously raises a fundamental question: who is to blame? This isn’t a simple query with a straightforward answer, as the roots of the conflict are multifaceted, stretching back through centuries of shared and contested history, intertwined with geopolitical ambitions, national identities, and broken agreements. Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the international community has largely condemned Russia’s actions as an unprovoked act of aggression, a clear violation of international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty. However, Moscow presents a narrative focusing on historical grievances, NATO expansion, and security concerns, framing its actions as a necessary response to perceived threats. Understanding who is to blame for the Russia-Ukraine conflict requires a thorough examination of these divergent viewpoints, delving into the historical context, key events, and the legal and ethical frameworks that govern international relations.

This article aims to dissect the layers of this intricate conflict, moving beyond superficial accusations to explore the historical trajectory, geopolitical motivations, and pivotal moments that have led to the current devastating war. From the collapse of the Soviet Union to the annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas, and the full-scale invasion, each phase adds complexity to the question of culpability. We will explore the arguments put forth by Russia, Ukraine, and the wider international community, seeking to provide a comprehensive, nuanced perspective on accountability in one of the most significant geopolitical events of the 21st century. The profound human cost and widespread instability underscore the urgent need to understand the origins and drivers of this protracted confrontation.

The Deep Roots of Discord: A Century of Russian-Ukrainian Relations

To comprehend who is to blame for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, one must first journey back through the long and often tumultuous history that binds and divides Russia and Ukraine. Their relationship is steeped in a shared heritage, tracing back to Kievan Rus’, a powerful medieval state considered the cultural cradle for both nations. Yet, this shared origin has often been overshadowed by centuries of external domination, including periods of Polish-Lithuanian, Ottoman, and especially, Russian imperial control. Ukraine, often referred to as the ‘borderland,’ has struggled to assert its unique identity amidst powerful neighbors, a struggle that profoundly shapes its current geopolitical stance. The concept of a distinct Ukrainian national identity, separate from Russia, began to solidify in the 19th century, fueled by cultural revival and intellectual movements, even as the Russian Empire sought to integrate Ukraine fully, often suppressing Ukrainian language and culture.

Following the Russian Revolution in 1917, Ukraine briefly gained independence before being forcibly incorporated into the Soviet Union. This period, particularly under Stalin, witnessed devastating events, most notably the Holodomor, a man-made famine in the 1930s that claimed millions of Ukrainian lives. Many Ukrainians view this as an act of genocide, a deliberate attempt by Moscow to crush Ukrainian national aspirations and collectivize agriculture. This historical trauma remains a powerful narrative in Ukraine, fostering deep-seated mistrust of Russian intentions and reinforcing the desire for full sovereignty and self-determination. The Soviet era, while industrializing Ukraine, also saw significant Russification policies, further complicating national identity and creating enduring linguistic and cultural divisions, particularly in the eastern and southern regions of the country. These historical grievances and the narrative of Russian imperial dominance form a critical backdrop against which contemporary events unfold. Ukraine’s memory of past oppression fuels its fierce resistance to any perceived Russian attempt to reassert control, making its aspirations for independence non-negotiable. The historical relationship, characterized by periods of subjugation and resistance, fundamentally shapes the current struggle, with each side drawing upon differing interpretations of their shared past to justify their actions and perspectives on the ongoing conflict. This complex historical tapestry makes assigning singular blame incredibly challenging without acknowledging the centuries of intertwined destinies and the evolution of distinct national consciousnesses.

The Shifting Sands of Post-Soviet Geopolitics: NATO, EU, and Security Concerns

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine declared its independence, a move recognized by Russia and the international community. This pivotal moment opened a new chapter, but also sowed the seeds of future conflict, particularly regarding geopolitical alignment. The question of who is to blame for the Russia-Ukraine conflict often circles back to the post-Cold War expansion of Western institutions like NATO and the European Union. Russia consistently asserts that NATO’s eastward expansion, contrary to alleged assurances given to Mikhail Gorbachev, posed an existential threat to its security, pushing military infrastructure closer to its borders. From Moscow’s perspective, this expansion was a breach of trust, an encroachment into its traditional sphere of influence, and a direct provocation. They argue that Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO were a ‘red line’ that the West deliberately crossed, leaving Russia with no choice but to respond forcefully to protect its national security interests and prevent a hostile military alliance from establishing a presence on its doorstep. They point to the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, which stated that NATO had ‘no intention, no plan, and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members,’ as evidence of commitments that were later circumvented by other forms of military buildup.

Ukraine, on the other hand, viewed its pursuit of closer ties with the West, including potential NATO and EU membership, as an exercise of its sovereign right to choose its own alliances and security architecture. For Ukraine, aligning with democratic, market-oriented states was a path to bolster its independence, economic prosperity, and national security against a historically dominant neighbor. Ukrainians, particularly after the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Euromaidan Revolution in 2014, clearly expressed a desire to integrate with Europe, rejecting Russia’s efforts to keep it within its orbit. They argue that Russia’s attempts to dictate Ukraine’s foreign policy choices constitute a violation of its sovereignty and a continuation of imperialistic ambitions. Western nations largely support Ukraine’s right to self-determination, emphasizing that NATO is a defensive alliance and that each sovereign nation has the right to decide its own security arrangements without external coercion. The narrative from Kyiv and its Western allies highlights that Russia’s claims of encirclement are unfounded, given NATO’s defensive posture and the fact that its expansion has been a result of democratic choices made by sovereign nations. The inability to reconcile these fundamentally opposing views on security and sovereignty created an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment, setting the stage for direct confrontation and making the question of ultimate culpability even more intricate amidst these deep-seated historical and geopolitical tensions.

The Genesis of Modern Hostilities: Crimea and the Donbas War of 2014

The immediate catalysts for the current large-scale conflict, and critical events in understanding who is to blame for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are the events of 2014: Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the subsequent war in Donbas. These developments directly followed Ukraine’s Euromaidan Revolution, which saw the overthrow of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych after months of widespread protests. Russia viewed Yanukovych’s removal as a Western-backed coup, an illegal seizure of power that threatened the interests of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine. Seizing on the ensuing political instability, Russia swiftly moved to annex the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, deploying unmarked military personnel (the ‘little green men’) to seize strategic locations and orchestrate a disputed referendum, which purportedly showed overwhelming support for joining the Russian Federation. The international community, with very few exceptions, condemned the annexation as a blatant violation of international law, Ukrainian sovereignty, and territorial integrity, citing the 1994 Budapest Memorandum where Russia, along with the US and UK, pledged to respect Ukraine’s borders in exchange for its renunciation of nuclear weapons.

Simultaneously, pro-Russian separatists, with covert and later overt support from Moscow, instigated an armed conflict in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, specifically in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. This led to the declaration of ‘people’s republics’ and a brutal low-intensity war that lasted for eight years, claiming over 13,000 lives before the full-scale invasion of 2022. Russia denied direct involvement initially, claiming its forces were volunteers, but mounting evidence from investigative journalists, intelligence agencies, and satellite imagery consistently pointed to the presence of regular Russian troops, weapons, and financial support for the separatists. The conflict saw repeated attempts at ceasefires and peace agreements, most notably the Minsk Protocols (Minsk I and Minsk II), brokered by France and Germany. These agreements, though never fully implemented, aimed to establish a ceasefire, withdraw heavy weapons, and grant special status to the Donbas regions within Ukraine, alongside other political reforms. Ukraine, however, consistently accused Russia of failing to uphold its end of the agreements and continuing to destabilize the region, while Russia blamed Ukraine for not implementing the political components. The events of 2014 fundamentally altered the security landscape of Europe, demonstrating Russia’s willingness to use military force to achieve its geopolitical objectives and setting a dangerous precedent for the violation of international norms. These aggressive actions undeniably place significant blame on Russia for initiating the modern phase of the conflict, directly challenging Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and inflicting immense suffering on the Ukrainian people.

The Full-Scale Invasion of 2022: Justifications, Reality, and International Condemnation

The escalation to a full-scale invasion in February 2022 unequivocally brought the question of who is to blame for the Russia-Ukraine conflict to a devastating and undeniable crescendo. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a ‘special military operation’ with stated goals of ‘demilitarization’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, along with protecting Russian speakers from alleged genocide. These justifications were immediately and overwhelmingly rejected by Ukraine and the vast majority of the international community as baseless pretexts for an unprovoked war of aggression. There was no credible evidence of widespread genocide against Russian speakers in Ukraine, and Ukraine’s democratically elected government, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, robustly refuted the ‘denazification’ claims as absurd propaganda. Instead, the invasion was seen as a blatant violation of international law, including the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.

The reality of the invasion has been characterized by widespread destruction, immense civilian casualties, and allegations of war crimes committed by Russian forces. Cities like Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Kharkiv have suffered catastrophic damage, while millions of Ukrainians have been displaced internally or forced to flee the country as refugees. The international response has been swift and severe, with broad condemnation from the United Nations General Assembly, extensive sanctions imposed on Russia by Western nations, and significant military and humanitarian aid provided to Ukraine. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has opened investigations into alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine, and issued an arrest warrant for President Putin in connection with the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children. Numerous human rights organizations have documented extensive abuses, including deliberate targeting of civilians, indiscriminate attacks, and the use of banned weapons.

From Ukraine’s perspective, the invasion is a barbaric act of imperial aggression, a direct assault on its sovereignty and existence as an independent nation. They assert their right to self-defense under international law and have demonstrated remarkable resilience and determination in resisting the invasion. The international community largely aligns with this view, seeing Russia’s actions as a profound challenge to the post-World War II international order, based on respect for sovereign borders and non-aggression. Russia’s attempts to legitimize its actions by holding sham referendums in occupied Ukrainian territories and then annexing them have been universally rejected as illegal and void under international law. Therefore, when evaluating who is to blame for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the 2022 invasion stands as a clear, unprovoked act of aggression by the Russian Federation, marking a definitive point of culpability for initiating a full-scale war in contravention of fundamental principles of international law and human decency.

Who is to Blame? Navigating the Labyrinth of Accountability

Directly addressing the question of who is to blame for the Russia-Ukraine conflict requires a comprehensive and principled assessment of actions, intentions, and international law. While historical grievances and geopolitical tensions undoubtedly form the backdrop, the immediate and primary responsibility for the current devastating war unequivocally lies with the Russian Federation. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was an unprovoked act of aggression, a clear violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a blatant breach of international law, including the foundational principles of the United Nations Charter. There is no legitimate international legal justification for invading a sovereign state under the pretexts of ‘denazification,’ ‘demilitarization,’ or protecting Russian speakers, especially when these claims are unsubstantiated propaganda. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to immediately suspend its military operations, underscoring the illegality of its actions.

However, it is crucial to acknowledge the different narratives. Russia’s perspective places significant blame on NATO expansion and the West’s perceived encroachment on its security interests. Moscow argues that its actions are a defensive response to a decades-long policy of undermining Russian influence and surrounding it with hostile military alliances. They emphasize historical ties, the presence of Russian speakers in Ukraine, and Ukraine’s aspirations towards Western blocs as existential threats. From this viewpoint, the West, particularly the United States, bears a significant share of culpability for provoking Russia and failing to address its legitimate security concerns through diplomatic channels. They might point to the disregard of the Minsk agreements by Ukraine and Western powers as further evidence of bad faith. This narrative, while offering insights into Russian motivations, does not, however, justify the use of military force against a sovereign state in violation of international law. Sovereign nations have the right to choose their alliances, and NATO is a defensive alliance, not an offensive one, a fact repeatedly stated by its members.

Ukraine, supported by most Western nations, places the blame squarely on Russia’s imperial ambitions and its unwillingness to accept an independent, democratic Ukraine aligned with Europe. For Kyiv, the conflict is an existential struggle for its very survival and sovereignty, a fight against a neo-imperial power seeking to re-establish control over former Soviet territories. They view the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the subsequent war in Donbas as precursor acts of aggression, leading directly to the full-scale invasion. Ukraine asserts that it has a fundamental right to self-determination and to pursue its own foreign policy free from coercion. The international community, through numerous UN resolutions, sanctions, and diplomatic statements, largely concurs with Ukraine’s assessment, identifying Russia as the aggressor and condemning its actions as grave violations of international law. While some argue that more robust diplomacy or alternative security arrangements might have averted the crisis, these arguments do not diminish Russia’s primary responsibility for initiating the armed conflict. Ultimately, while historical context and geopolitical dynamics are vital for understanding the conflict’s genesis, the undeniable fact remains that Russia launched an unprovoked invasion against a sovereign nation, making its actions the primary cause of the war and the source of immense suffering and instability. The choices made by the Kremlin in 2014 and decisively in 2022 represent a clear break from international norms and laws, establishing primary culpability for the ensuing devastation.

Conclusion: A Protracted Conflict and the Quest for Justice

In concluding our examination of who is to blame for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it becomes evident that while the historical tapestry is rich with complex interdependencies and grievances, the immediate and overwhelming responsibility for the current war of aggression rests squarely with the Russian Federation. Russia’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion in February 2022, following its earlier annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donbas, constituted a clear and unprovoked violation of international law, Ukraine’s sovereignty, and the foundational principles of the global order. No amount of historical revisionism, claims of NATO expansionism, or allegations of threats can legitimately justify the use of military force against a sovereign nation.

The conflict underscores the fragility of peace and the critical importance of international law in maintaining stability. The devastation wrought upon Ukraine, the immense human cost, and the profound geopolitical repercussions demand accountability. As the conflict continues, the international community’s focus remains on supporting Ukraine’s right to self-defense, seeking justice for war crimes, and working towards a lasting peace that respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The question of culpability, while complex in its historical layers, is ultimately clarified by the undeniable facts of aggression, making Russia primarily responsible for initiating and perpetuating this devastating war. The journey towards a just and enduring peace will undoubtedly require not only an end to hostilities but also a robust framework for international accountability and reconstruction, ensuring that such blatant acts of aggression are deterred in the future.